Romney Does Indeed Have a Rick Santorum Problem

Having largely vanquished Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney is probably going to be the Republican nominee for president. It looks like Rick Santorum is going to make things as interesting as possible until the end though.

This Reuters op-ed says that Romney has a Santorum problem, and Googlebomb jokes aside, I agree. Gingrich was an easy target. He made a lot of enemies within the party back in the '90s, and he's abrasive and pompous to boot.

Santorum is and has been the most earnest strong conservative of the field. Aside from his endorsement of Arlen Specter in 2004, there's not a whole lot Romney can pin on the guy from a negative campaigning standpoint. That was the weapon that Romney used to slay Gingrich, but it'll be much harder to use it against Santorum.

Here's the thing: Santorum has no chance at winning the general election. None. He even lost his Senate seat by the largest margin ever for a Republican incumbent. Many of his views lie far outside the American mainstream, such as the idea that all contraceptives are bad. He's simply too conservative to win a national election.

Romney's problem is that Santorum isn't completely out of line with his party's mainstream in the way that Ron Paul is. Paul might be the most conservative guy in the race depending on how you define "conservative", but his appeal is largely limited to the libertarian fringe of the G.O.P. Romney can't call Santorum unelectable (which he is) without telling large swaths of his party that agreeing with some of their most important issues makes a person unelectable. Besides, Americans don't tend to like to see favorites hammer on likable underdogs.

Of course Romney still has a huge money advantage, and none of the recent victories for Santorum actually won him any delegates. Romney didn't really even try to win those votes. When he has put forth full effort in states, Romney has been able to do quite well. Of course, not trying in those states could have been a big blunder rather than a smart use of money (remember, no delegates were awarded), as now the not-Romney focus has shifted to the guy he can't beat on like a punching bag.

Romney did win the CPAC straw poll, and he's still the odds-on favorite. His primary rival is no longer an easy primary-time target though, which means he's going to have to win ugly.